Sept. 17, 2021, 1:30 AM PDT. (Bexar Facts . Semipresencial en Aguascalientes, Maestra a distancia en Actividad Fsica y Salud, Maestra a distancia en Energas Renovables, Descubre un completo Directorio de Centros de Formacin, Mejore su italiano con solo 15 minutos al da. New polling showed that Texas' Governor Greg Abbott's approval rating is underwater. ORourke has not led Abbott in a single public poll released in 2022. Northam, like all Virginia governors, legally cannot seek reelection. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Abbott, while 42 percent said they would back O'Rourke in November. Larry Hogan (7) Most Texas voters dont buy into the false claims of rampant voter fraud that former President Donald Trump has been pushing. As for the constitutional carry law that passed last year the one that means anyone 21 or older can carry a handgun without a license a majority of Texans, along with many law enforcement officials, opposed it. The true sign of a leader, the measure of a leader, is not based on who you beat down and belittle, said Harris. Independent candidates in these two states are seeing enough support to include as an option on the map. When asked if they supported or opposed banning all abortions in the state if the Supreme Court overturns Roe, 54 percent of voters said they were opposed, with 42 percent strongly opposed. Democrat John Bel Edwards of Louisiana is the only other incumbent governor running for reelection in 2019,5 and he is in the inverse scenario: He has the seventh-highest PARG of any governor, with a solid net approval rating of +15 in an R+17 state. Democrats in several key races saw a polling bump after the Supreme Court in June overturned Roe v. Waderepealing abortion rights across the country. Following his 2018 reelection, Abbotts job approval rating was clearly net positive (approval rating minus disapproval rating), but recent surveys suggest his standing has worsened to the point that more registered voters in Texas now disapprove of Abbotts performance than approve. Matt Bevin (6) Protesters, many of them young, lined the sidewalk in front of Discovery Green, having spent much of the day in the blazing sun listening to Beto ORourke and others plead the case for gun safety. Republican Gov. According to FiveThirtyEight's presidential approval tracker, 3 51.1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 42.6 percent disapprove (a net approval. But despite ORourkes close finish in 2018, a Democrat still hasnt won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and given that the national environment seems likely to favor Republicans in 2022, ORourke might face an even more challenging campaign this time around. Its also unclear how Texans would react to continual strikes in the legislature. In a different world, you might have expected the leader of a state that has had this year alone over 20 mass shootings (in which four or more people were killed or injured) to go to great efforts to comfort and conciliate his constituents. Related: Kamala Harris taking a selfie with a supporter. Along with Phil Scott of Vermont, they make up a trio Ive dubbed the Maroon 3 because they are Republicans enisled in deep-blue states.4 And not only did these three GOP castaways survive 2018, but they also continued to thrive as some of the most popular governors in the country. The poll began in 2008, and this one marked just the second time that the percentage of respondents who said that the state was on the wrong track exceeded 50 percent. Greg Abbott Job Approval: Handling of the Response to the Coronavirus (October 2021) Support or Oppose: Governor Greg Abbott's plan to use state money to add more barriers on the border between Texas and Mexico (October 2021) For only the second time in UT polling, but the second time in less than a year, a majority of Texas voters say that the state is on the wrong track. Governors in Vermont and New Hampshire serve two-year terms. Still, Republican Gov. Harris was Bidens running mate in 2020, and as the first woman, first African-American and first person of South Asian heritage to run for the vice presidency, she was instrumental to his victory over Donald Trump. 6:00 AM. Republicans hold the power here in Texas, and as in so much of the nation, holding on to it is their top priority. If ORourke is going to win higher office someday, it may have to happen sometime after 2022 if hes willing to keep trying. But that doesnt change the fact that Democrats may be without a long-term solution for the time being since the U.S. Congress and the Biden administration have not figured out the best path forward. All rights reserved. In fact, there isnt much of a connection between a governors net approval rating and his states partisan lean.2 Although that might seem surprising given how dominant partisanship is these days, its really not all that shocking: The correlation between gubernatorial and federal election results has gotten stronger in recent years, but partisanship is still a better predictor of the latter than the former. Even as a handful of billionaires prepare for, Support for seceding from the United States has increased among almost every partisan group, but especially Republicans, according to the. But not many think that way today. Ted. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? Newsweek reached out to the O'Rourke and Abbott campaigns for comment. | FiveThirtyEight UPDATED Apr. She used the opportunity to speak in front of a young, Black audience to launch her first rally of the campaign, attacking extremist so-called leaders in the Republican Party for trying to limit the right to abortion, which is in the hands of the states after the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade. Disfruta con nuestros Crucigramas para expertos! But its also because he doesnt have to answer to any people on that side of the political spectrum. Greg Abbott has taken a dive in the state, according to a new poll released Sunday.. A 54% majority of Texans believe the state is headed in the wrong direction, while just 45% think the state is on the right track, according to a survey conducted by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler.. Abbott's approval rating before the COVID-19 . In the United States, the incumbent president traditionally runs for reelection, and does so on the same ticket. Abbotts approval slide has a few causes. Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2024 due to term limits. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees. Texas Politics (20) Tip: The width in the code can be adjusted to best fit your space. But this hasnt made passing voting rights legislation easy. What Are His Chances For 2024? . Semipresencial en Madrid, Espaa, Maestra en 'Data Management' e Innovacin Tecnolgica 100% en lnea. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. Kamala Harris protesting with her husband, Doug Emhoff. Check out the latest poll page to explore results related to the 87th legislative session, the coronavirus pandemic, assessments of state leaders, and more. Shaded rows denote governors whose seats are up in 2019 or 2020, excluding those governors who are not seeking reelection. Well, he does seem to be lacking in empathy, but there are other, more salient factors at work. For instance, the recent UT-Austin/Texas Tribune/YouGov survey found that 57 percent of independents disapproved of Abbotts performance, and the surveys from Quinnipiac and Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler found a plurality or majority of independents disapproved of Abbotts handling of the pandemic, abortion and the concealed-carry law as a whole. (The primary is on May 21.). A Dallas Morning News/University of Texas-Tyler poll from early September found that 50 percent of registered voters opposed permit-less concealed carry, while the Quinnipiac survey found 53 percent disapproved of Abbotts handling of abortion. Election Administration (66) Kamala Harris walking with Joe Biden down the arched hallway leading to the West Wing, before embracing his wife, Jill Biden. O'Rourke rose to national prominence after nearly defeating Texas Senator Ted Cruz in 2018's Senate race, giving Democrats hopes of flipping the state for the first time in decades. Republicans still like him; as of April, 80 percent approved. Support for Texas Republican Gov. These weaker numbers for ORourke underscore some of his potential vulnerabilities as a candidate. Finally, some governors who arent up for reelection in 2019 or 2020 nonetheless have interesting PARGs. Without some action at the federal level, Texas Democrats will not win their current fight either. In this photo, Abbott speaks during a visit to the border wall near Pharr, Texas on June 30. The poll found the Republican governor securing 53 percent of the vote, while just 46 percent of respondents said they planned to vote for O'Rouke. This applies to gubernatorial elections, too, even though they are not quite as nationalized or polarized as federal elections. If at first you dont succeed, try, try again. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. But if the president had decided not to run for reelection, all eyes would have turned to her. The June 2021 poll shows that 44% of Texans approve of Abbott's job as governor, while 44% disapprove. Kay Ivey of Alabama and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire are about equally popular, according to their net approval ratings. Eric Thayer and Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images, Texas Governor Race Slightly Narrows: Polls, Abbott in Tighter Race Than Past Elections, aggregate of recent polling from FiveThirtyEight, SCOTUS Now Just Another Congressional Committee, Secret Chinese Police Stations in Europe Are 'Tip of the Iceberg', Trump's Attorney Just Blew Carroll Rape Case, King Charles Says Royals Require 'Acting Ability', Ukraine Will Regain 'Significant Territory' From Russia, Florida GOP Paves the Way to Help Ron DeSantis Challenge Trump. Hes at the bottom of the list with a -42 PARG. [2] But perhaps the most astounding PARG of all is the simple +5 score of Democratic Gov. Greg Abbott* UT: Spencer Cox: 2021: 1st: VA: Glenn Youngkin: 2022: 1st: Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits. An April Pew Research Center survey found that 61 percent of Americans supported automatically registering all eligible citizens to vote, while 78 percent supported making early in-person voting available to voters for at least two weeks before Election Day. This is why Lieutenant Governor Patrick can get away with claiming that arming teachers is the way to prevent school shootings and why Ted Cruzs solution to preventing the deaths of schoolchildren is to keep all but one door to school buildings locked, fire marshals be damned. Likewise, Democratic Gov. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 44.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 49.5 percent (a net approval rating of -4.7 points). The latest 'Popularity Above Replacement Governor' scores Governors' net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states A Democratic. Copy editing by Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan and Curtis Yee. How Popular Is Joe Biden? In a state of almost 30 million, roughly 17 million are registered to vote, but only about two million voted in the past two Republican primaries and those who do vote dependably are older, white and far to the right. Greg Abbott Job Approval: Handling of Immigration and Border Security (October 2021) Greg Abbott Job Approval: Handling of the Response to the Coronavirus (October 2021) Support or Oppose: Governor Greg Abbott's plan to use state money to add more barriers on the border between Texas and Mexico (October 2021) WA: Jay Inslee . But which one leads the pack in the stat that really matters, PARG?! What they have been doing is making Texas appealing for corporations and for hard-right culture warriors. The prevailing idea in Washington is that after two years and three months in office, she has failed to find her footing. For instance, the bill would ban drive-thru voting, enjoyed by voters of both parties during the pandemic, but 47 percent of Texas voters said the state should not prohibit counties from offering this service, according to an April University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll. All rights reserved. Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2023 due to term limits. In the latest poll, 35% of voters approved of the job he is doing, while 39% . Matt Bevin of Kentucky, on the other hand, has not been so lucky. 2022 Governors Elections (39) A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Dan Patrick and Senator John Cornyn avoid the pro-gun crowd just this once. Beto O'Rourke (55) 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight. According to FiveThirtyEight's presidential approval tracker, 42.5 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 51.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating. 21 das de prueba gratuita de nuestro curso de francs online, Mejore su ingls con EL PAS con 15 minutos al da, Disfrute de nuestras lecciones personalizadas, breves y divertidas, Mejore su italiano con EL PAS con 15 minutos al da, Las mejores oportunidades hablan alemn. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. This impossible set of issues includes international relations and social problems such as minority voting rights, police brutality and gun control. Greg Abbott: 2015: 2nd: Beto O'Rourke . Ms. Swartz is an executive editor of Texas Monthly. And beyond issues of gun control, Abbotts campaign has been only too happy to go after ORourke with clips of the Democrats past praise for the Green New Deal and opposition to building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Besides being a Democrat in Republican-leaning Texas, ORourke has also positioned himself on some issues in ways that could hurt him in the Lone Star State. Lastly and most fundamentally, the 2022 political environment will probably help Abbott far more than it will aid ORourke. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. Republicans, however, were more likely than Democrats to believe fraud was a recurring issue: 31 percent of GOP voters said ineligible votes were frequently cast versus just 6 percent of Democrats who said the same. Voting Rights (39) Among governors who are up for reelection in 2020, both Scott and Sununu6 would start in strong positions they rank third and sixth, respectively, in PARG. Another June poll, from Quinnipiac University, yielded similar results. Greg Abbott's approval rating is waning as most Texans say the state is on the "wrong track," according to a poll from The Texas Policy Project at the University of Texas at Austin. A vice presidents duties can seem purely superficial to those outside the inner halls of the White House, that is, unless they take over because the president resigns (Gerald Ford), is assassinated (Lyndon Johnson) or gives them a much-awaited moment of power (from Bush Sr. to Biden, the second in command sometimes gets the opportunity to occupy the Oval Office). Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers major. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. But in Bidens case, a second White House run was less certain given the concerns about his age: if he wins the 2024 election, he will be 82 when he is sworn in as president. But not many think that way today. 6:00 AM, PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. According to Quinnipiac University, Abbott now has a divided 44-47% approval rating. Northams PARG is a good tipoff that maybe the governor will survive the firestorm and have the political capital to serve out his term,7 which ends in 2022. Given the limitations of the office, Harris has done little in the past two years but show that she is loyal to Biden. This marks the first time he has been under since the university began polling in Texas in April 2018. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted from September 22 to 26 of 1,327 likely votersthe most recent public polling of the racefound Abbott with a 7 point lead against O'Rourke. When Texas voters were asked in this poll whether volunteer poll watchers should be allowed to record video or audio or take pictures of voters, 52 percent said they were opposed or unsure how they felt. Laura Kelly of Kansas has a stellar +47 PARG, suggesting that many of the states residents are siding with her in her clashes with the Republican legislature many of which she has won. According to an April Economist/YouGov poll, 46 percent of Americans said voters should always be able to vote by mail, while 42 percent said they should be allowed to do so only if they couldnt vote in person. But it is foreign policy that has caused Harris the most headaches. Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee in the survey. For a stretch last year, more Texans disapproved of Mr. Abbott than approved of him a rarity since 2015. Like Abbott, Patrick's approval rating has improved a bit since the August survey, though it is still upside-down. despite President Bidens issuing strong words, calling lawmakers back for special sessions, vetoed the portion of the states omnibus budget bill. Interestingly, a governors popularity often diverges from the partisanship of his state. During the 2020 campaign, Biden who is now calling on voters to let him finish the job called himself a bridge with a mission: to restore normalcy in the United States after four years of Trump and pave the way for future Democratic leaders. Why is Biden announcing his 2024 bid now, and what will change? Most memorably, in response to a question on gun control at a September 2019 presidential primary debate, ORourke said, Hell yes, were going to take your AR-15, your AK-47, essentially writing Republican attack ads for them in a state with a large number of gun owners. 9, 2021 Most Candidates. Key Background: By the last week in August, more than. Do Americans Have A Favorable Opinion Of Donald Trump? Biden Is Running For Reelection. Biden Job Approval on Issues. Hes running for reelection this year, and the race is closer than it probably would be otherwise. convention last week and headed to Uvalde to play the part of a concerned Texas governor. Surprising Fact. Even a poll that was paid for by his leading GOP rival, U.S. Rep. Ralph Abraham, has Edwards winning reelection (albeit narrowly) in a hypothetical general-election runoff between the two. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 36 governor elections in 2022. How Greg Abbott and Under 4 Percent of Texans Are Ruining the State for the Rest of Us, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/03/opinion/texas-republicans-abbott.html. America loves its Republican governors. Disfruta de nuestras lecciones personalizadas, breves y divertidas. Other polls have found similar results. Abbott's unfavorability ratings are also the highest they've ever been at 44%, according to the poll, which was conducted after the deadliest school shooting in state history and almost. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. This is an interactive gubernatorial map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? Like schoolchildren. And in Quinnipiacs poll, even though just 42 percent of registered voters said Abbott deserved to be reelected, only 33 percent thought ORourke would be a good governor including just 26 percent of independents. Why Texass Abortion Law May Go Too Far For Most Americans Read more. Greg Abbott Job Approval: Handling of Immigration and Border Security (October 2021) Greg Abbott Job Approval: Handling of the Response to the Coronavirus (October 2021) Support or Oppose: Governor Greg Abbott's plan to use state money to add more barriers on the border between Texas and Mexico (October 2021) His state is facing another Covid surge. Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2025 due to term limits. And secondly, there were concerns about her performance as vice president. They dont matter, just as the folks at Discovery Green didnt matter. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris at a reproductive rights rally at Howard University in Washington. And without eliminating the filibuster (which seems unlikely considering some of the Democratic holdouts), its doubtful the bill will pass the current Congress despite President Bidens issuing strong words on the topic on Tuesday. Absentee Voting (23) Back in May, Texas House Democrats gained national attention for walking out of the state Capitol and preventing the legislature from having enough members to pass a stringent voting measure that wouldve further restricted access to the ballot box in a state where voting is already hard. But while Texans arent thrilled with Abbotts performance as governor, that doesnt mean theyre necessarily inclined to prefer ORourke. Biden Is Running For Reelection. Its not a new idea: its as old as Benjamin Franklin, who joked that a vice president should be addressed as Your Superfluous Excellency.. The News' poll shows his approval rating in Texas mired at 40% and only 29% approve of his management of the southern border with Mexico. Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAS USA Edition, If you are interested in licensing this content, please contact, Sign up to EL PAS in English Edition bulletin, If you want to follow all the latest news without any limits, subscribe to EL PAS for just 1 the first month. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Republicans currently lead Democrats by 0.6 percentage points (42.5 percent to 41.9 percent, respectively).2 A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 1.3 percentage points (42.5 percent to 41.2 percent, respectively). Second, Texas voters seem to still be disappointed by his administrations response to the winter storms this past February and the failure of the states power grid. Abbott has threatened to continue calling lawmakers back for special sessions until Democrats return, and in June he vetoed the portion of the states omnibus budget bill that funded salaries for lawmakers and their staff, citing Democrats first walkout in May. Its expected to fail once again, though, since most of the states legislative Democrats left the Capitol again this time for Washington, D.C. Republicans in the state are angry. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. What Are His Chances For 2024? On the other hand, with the fourth-worst PARG in the country, the Republican governor of West Virginia, Jim Justice, is significantly less popular than the partisanship of his state suggests he should be. All rights reserved. By Henry J. Gomez. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee and former Congressman, Beto O'Rourke. 2020 Governors Elections (5) Greg Abbott (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Even though Abbott appears to hold a lead against O'Rourke, he still appears to be headed for his closest election. Yet nobody is even close to him in the. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Do not come. Running against Abbott also creates a personal political . In June, Senate Republicans rejected Democrats efforts to bring the For the People Act to the floor for debate. The poll found that 38 percent of voters were most concerned about the U.S.-Mexico border, while 17 percent listed abortion as their top concern. Greg Abbott of Texas addressed the National Rifle Association in a prerecorded video last week in Houston. With a massive $55 million in his campaign account, Abbott will be able to more than blanket the airwaves, social media and webpages with ads attacking ORourke on these points of weakness, too. . O'Rourke is now challenging Abbott, first elected in 2014, in the gubernatorial race. At Tuesdays event at Howard University, Mini Timmaraju, the president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, expressed her support for the vice presidents efforts. All Rights Reserved. He cannot ignore this issue, because that question will be on the minds of many voters come election time. Friedman also cited three possible reasons for Harriss low approval rating: it may be that she has been forced to deal with unsolvable issues, that she is continually looked down on, or that she is the victim of a mix of sexism and racism. Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan and Julia Wolfe contributed research. The poll additionally shows Abbott has 83-12% job approval rating among Republicans, 43-47% among independents and 89-6% among Democrats. The poll doesn't bode particularly well for Democrat Beto O'Rourke or actor and Austin resident Matthew McConaughey either. Iveys is +44, while Sununus is +41. Harris will be Bidens running mate again in the 2024 election, but its unclear whether this time, she will have as much of an impact. His rating bounced back this spring, to 47 percent approval versus 41 percent . He's constantly dodging attacks from the right. Politics (51) Reproductive freedom is under attack, and we cant back down from this fight, said Timmaraju. Alex Samuels is a politics reporter at FiveThirtyEight. At this time last week, 51.7 percent approved and 42.1 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of +9.6 points). Texas (106) All rights reserved. Copy Code. Abortion, one of the top issues for many voters following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, emerged as key issues during Friday's debate, with both candidates accusing each other of holding extremist views on the topic. Most Candidates Take The Hint After Two Losses. And when asked in an April Quinnipiac survey whether mail-in ballot access put in place during the pandemic should become permanent, 54 percent of all Americans said yes, while 42 percent said no. Whats happening there highlights the very real limitations lawmakers face on the issue of voting rights if the federal government fails to intervene. Some of that is because Northams net approval rating was +22 among respondents who took the poll in January, before the controversy hit. Why Republicans Wont Support Sweeping Voting Rights Legislation Now Or Anytime Soon Read more. Phil Scott (3). Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. The keys to longevity are hidden in the microbes that give us beer and wine, The Exorcist actress Linda Blair prepares for a comeback 50 years on, Ana de Armas: The films that have made her one of cinemas biggest stars, What makes humans unique are 10,000 missing bits of DNA, From Ana de Armas to Pedro Pascal: 12 celebrities who owe their success, career or life to another famous friend, Maestra en Big Data y Analytics 100% en lnea, MBA Administracin y Direccin de Empresas en lnea, Programa en lnea en 'Project Finance' Internacional, Maestra en lnea en Direccin de Recursos Humanos y Gestin del Talento, Maestra en Comercio Internacional presencial en Madrid, Espaa, Maestra en Marketing Digital & E-Commerce. But because New Hampshire is less Republican-leaning than Alabama (R+2 compared with R+27), Sununus standing is much more impressive which is why his PARG is 22 points higher than Iveys. What PARG can do is shed a light on governors who outperform the partisanship of their states something that can help us suss out who is strongly (or weakly) positioned for the gubernatorial elections in 2019 and 2020. Jul. [1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES, Nov. 19, 2021, Kamala Harris in the Oval Office. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. In other words, ORourke will be trying to do what he couldnt do in 2018 or 2020 win under arguably even more challenging circumstances.
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