2. Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 + >250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Average number of seasons as a WR1/WR2 w/ at least 20 targets during their rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Advanced stats offer insight into a Wide Receiver's performance beyond the standard box score. Robby went on to score 74% of his total PPR points on routes run from the slot compared to a measly 26% on . The purpose of the metrics is not solely to rank receivers from best to worst; the goal is to describe and explain how a receiver is -- or isn't -- able to produce yards. An offense is going to try to do whatever it can to get the ball in the hands of its best players, and Thomas fits the bill, as do DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper (Nos. Here's a visualization of route paths sorted by our predicted route type: For training purposes, the tracking data for the wideout model has been normalized such that all the pass catchers are to the left of the quarterback, with the rationale being that the route paths are symmetrical. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. With Jermaine Gresham recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in Week 17, Arizona beat writers are projecting Seals-Jones to enter camp as the starter and with an expanded role in the offense. Dividing total receiving yards recorded by the number of routes run in a given game, season, career, etc. 25 games played) he ranks 29th in receiving fantasy points per game. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. You don't currently have any notifications. Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. Get used to seeing his name: Thomas is the top-ranked player in half of these categories. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! John Brown also has a compelling case here, but he was edged out by Thomas in a close battle. One thing to know is we exclude assessments of any nontargeted routes on a screen pass, because receivers typically are blocking rather than trying to get open. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. [deleted] 2 yr. ago. Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. You can find me on Twitter @TheBauerClub, and consider subscribing to my podcast, DynastyTheory. You can't go wrong with any of these guys when throwing deep over the middle. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. The 6-foot-3, 211-pound wide receiver ended up with the lowest single-season PFF grade and yards per route run average of his eight-year NFL career in 2021. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . Here are the top-five seasons since 2017: The top-rated players mostly match our intuitive sense of great receivers, but there are more concrete ways of determining the usefulness of metrics. From 2007 to 2012, there were 344 wide receivers who saw at least 40 targets in Year N, and then played for the same team and saw at least 40 targets in Year N+1. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. And the ultimate goal of every route is to create enough separation from a defender to earn a target and make a catch. What about Yards per Target? Quarterbacks are clearly an essential factor in whether a receiver makes catches and gains yards. The Chief's quarterback is not a particularly accurate thrower, but he helps his targets get open. So, what can we do with this information, and why should we care? Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. 3. 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. Cole Beasley may be the weirdest case in the group. Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Think of it like this: CPOE measures the catching ability of a receiver, accounting for his ability to get open. Latest on Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN . Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. One example from recent memory that comes to mind is Chris Godwin. The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus has shown that the best receivers in the league earn their targets all over the field, so its no surprise to see familiar names in the deep-target SOE ranks. Julio Jones has ranked first in yards per route run in four of the past five seasons, and top-five in each of the past five seasons. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. Receivers like Thomas and Beckham run them well, and to great success. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. The optimal time limits for these route types were determined by analyzing how pass attempts played out over the past two seasons; for reference, 4.4 seconds accounted for the 75th percentile of all pass attempts by time to throw in that span. New Orleans Saints (52) This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. And targets to him are among the most valuable plays in football across all depths. This chart helps hammer that point home. The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! That's not bad for a strictly objective measure as something as mercurial as receiver performance. Passing Rushing Receiving Kicking Returns Defense. Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 20191 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver? This speaks greatly to Bells value as a fantasy asset. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. But what we have here is a backup thrust into a starting role due to injury, and a player who then produced like a star receiver over the final 10 quarters of the season. . How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? It also means the entire analysis is conditional on a player actually being targeted. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. We also hear about touchdowns being random from year to year. the drag). Jones was targeted deep more frequently, suggesting that his skillset is better suited to the demands of beating fast humans in a footrace, but hes also not as successful at creating separation from defenders as Thomas is. Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. Chark and Kenny Stills at the top of the list the stretch X receivers whose job is to take the top off a defense. In the tables above, I am referring to hit rate as any wide receiver that achieved WR1 (top-12 in PPR formats) status in a given season in his career. For example, YAC Score looks at the tracking data at the time of catch and makes a prediction of how many additional yards a receiver will typically make, based on the locations, directions and speeds of all 22 players. Without success in the early part of the sequence, he wouldn't have many opportunities through the remainder of the process. ESPN Stats & Information Group. We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. All rights reserved. Find out more. We can break down statistics as simple as receiving yards all the way to air yards and even more in-depth measurables such as BMI, which seems to be a hot topic this offseason. Since 2018, ESPN has introduced pass-rush, run-stop, pass-block and run-block player metrics. Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. Who has the edge? YDS. Keegan Abdoo investigates this strength -- and whether it will give Philadelphia an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. Ginn ran a go route more often than any receiver in the sample . Through thirteen games, Jernigan had just 10 catches for 92 yards, and was a forgotten man behind Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, and Rueben Randle. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. With hitches, there's some uncertainty for cornerbacks: Is their man running a hitch or is it going to be a go (or fade) route? The WOPR and YPRR look a bit different than other sources. At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. To do this successfully, it takes a receiver who can win off the line, cut inside at an angle and catch a bullet from the quarterback for a solid gain. To put that in perspective, he is currently the only player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average over 3.3 yards per route in a season (min. AVG . Running backs saw a 0.87 correlation between raw touches and fantasy points. One interesting insight from the adjustments is that quarterbacks have a large effect on the openness of receivers at pass arrival. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? . You don't currently have any notifications. Hunter Renfrow caught 80.5% of the 128 targets thrown his way in 2021. Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. I hope that this deep dive has put yards per route run on your radar when evaluating wide receivers and making educated decisions when identifying breakout wide receivers. Justin Blackmon was in the same boat as Jones in that he only played in four games. Brown such a special talent? Receiving stats on short passes for Michael Thomas, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. When looking at any metric or measurable, it is always best to marry it up with other available data points to paint a clearer picture. Thomas wins the yardage battle between the two (382 to 318), helping us find some separation between a couple of receivers that are incredibly dangerous when running shallow routes over the middle. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. Or write about sports? Stat Type. CNNs allow us to engage with the spatial nature of our dataset (that is, where each player is on the field in a given play), while LSTM networks allow us to engage with the temporal nature of our dataset (what happens as the play develops over time). And there is a pretty clear answer to that question. Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. We found the shape of the routes aligned with our expectations of route paths; no egregious model predictions seem apparent. 425. So how much insight can we gather from a wide receivers yards per route in his rookie year? The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. For each, a benchmark is set based on the context and dynamic inner workings of the play. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or less. Measuring separation at the time of the throw punishes teammates with great chemistry. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. I came into this article with the belief that the rate of yards per route run during a wide receivers rookie season was a fairly strong indicator for future success, but I wanted to take a deep dive to really be sure. One number that does not carry that weight for wide receivers is yards after the catch. Davis was immediately utilized, earning a 71.6-percent snap share with 454 routes run. To try to capture the results of this game of cat and mouse between receiver and defender, we used NFL Next Gen Stats data that measures the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at key moments in each play. 2021. We've already provided a metrics-based breakdown of the best players at key positions this summer, but the geniuses at Next Gen Stats don't rest on their laurels. In total, the wideout model was trained on over 100,000 routes, while the backfield model was trained on over 15,000 routes. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. Being quick and fast isnt enough for NFL success; just ask Yamon Figurs or Darrius Heyward-Bey, both of whom ran a 4.3 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. Wide Receivers (14) Tyron Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL according to Yards Per Route Run. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. While it is certainly vital to look at the broader picture, it is clear that yards per route run is a metric you need to incorporate into your fantasy football vernacular. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. The type of play call matters, too. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. Over the past two seasons, Bell also averages 63.9 snaps per game, or about 11.8 more per game than the next-closest running back (Ezekiel Elliott). With year-to-year R-squared values of around 0.3, these three metrics are the most stable existing metrics that measure wide receiver performance. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Among those top 25 receivers, no receiver was pressed at a higher rate at the line than Thomas (42%), and only one was pressed as much: Stefon Diggs. Thats what we are doing here. Perhaps even Simpsons paradox caveats. This route is a little easier to explain, primarily because of one infallible truth: Everyone loves the long ball. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. at He is unlikely to see the field in 2014, and will almost certainly go down as a colossal bust. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. The model was trained and validated against all routes from every passing play from 2018 and '19, including both the regular season and the postseason. The Next Gen Stats analytics team digs into three key free agency needs for every NFC team. The data wizards are back again with another new way to break down some of the game's top weapons. Over the past decade, among all players with at least 250 snaps in a single season, raw targets had a 0.95 correlation to PPR fantasy points for wide receivers and that number sat at 0.96 for tight ends. * These targets are based on play by play data and include penalties. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. We cant say anything about the skill of receivers who fail to earn targets. One is to measure how consistent they are from year to year. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. The data set includes all regular-season pass attempts from the last three seasons, excluding spikes and passes from punts and field goal formations. We present them here for purely educational purposes. REC. Brown's two touchdowns on in routes also tied for the most in the NFL, and while his catch rate above expectation wasn't the best (+12.8%, ranking 11th among receivers who were targeted at least five times on in routes), his league-leading yards per reception on such routes (27.4) cements his status as the top player in this category. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.).